Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at CakeTCG RDO Online Regional
decks
4
(8.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
8-7-5
overall winrate
52.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
50.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1404
· median 1398
· range 1357–1463
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1090
Q1 1297
Q3 1494
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 14.9% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 47.1% | -1.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Water Exia | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.0% | -3.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.1% | +4.0 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
